Calling time - or being called
The IDHC rug gets pulled.
Dear reader
An unexpected and unwelcome RNS. A takeover is usually welcome news. Not today. Not for IDHC.
21.87% of shares were bought for an undisclosed sum in December 2025 but where the market price would have indicated $87m.
Today the CEO of IDHC bought those same shares for $63m or $0.50 per share. At a 25% discount it would seem. Awfully generous. Immediately launched a takeover offer using that price as the “final” offer price.
To succeed the CEO will need to obtain 75% of shares. Can the CEO get there? Perhaps. Currently has nearly 50%.
The Board of Directors have gone away to take legal advice and to consider the offer.
The choices appear to be:
Sell: today’s market price was $0.49 - $0.50 minus dealing costs.
Wait: If you wait then one of 4 things will happen:
2a. You are offered $0.50 cash and take it.
2b. A counter bid comes in and a bidding war begins (bearing in mind that Hena own 49% so the chances aren’t good).
2c. The offer is turned down by the Board of Directors as not fair (although this is subject to legal advice they are taking etc)
2d. You refuse to sell and then become a holder of unlisted shares held in Jersey.
For the purposes of the OB picks for 26 I’ve decided to call time.
Is that a reflection of its performance - not at all. It was a Black Swan no one saw coming.
Compared with my last update the picks in the month of June MTD have taken a near 5% battering from 36.7% at 31st May to 31.8% today.
I’m also calling time on CORN. This evening the UK roasts under record temperatures. Is that a good time to give up on El Nino? Unfortunately it could be that CORN is too early. It is an idea perhaps for the future.
Now it’s time to have a cooling off period, and contemplate where to redeploy the cash.
Regards
The Oak Bloke.
Disclaimers:
This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not consider your personal circumstances and is not financial, investment, tax, legal, or professional advice. Nothing here is a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. Investing involves risk, including the loss of capital. You are solely responsible for your own decisions
Micro cap and Nano cap holdings might have a higher risk and higher volatility than companies that are traditionally defined as “blue chip”
No, the analysis isn’t strictly correct, it’s a Rule 9 offer under the Code, not a Guernsey Scheme. The acceptance condition cannot be higher than 50.1% in a Rule 9 offer. So it’s almost certain to go unconditional, and once declared so, there’s 14 days for non-acceptors to accept. Once past 50%, the concert party can buy in the market without restriction. Usefully, they say that they do not intend to seek to delist if they get to 75%. But who wants to hold a stake in a controlled, illiquid, unbiddable Egyptian family company, were Hend can do what she likes?
So the odd appearance of a $60bn activist fund in a complicated SPV structure in an emerging market was a stitch up. Elliott take a nice turn and exit stage left. Not sure why they were there at all, but perhaps Actis refused to sell to Dr Hend at a knock down price.
Fortunately I sold out of these as part of a portfolio rationalisation exercise 6 months or so ago. That turned out, purely by chance, to be near the high. I was actually reluctant to sell because they looked like they had potential but I had to take some difficult decisions in order to reduce the number of my holdings very substantially.