ALTN Gold - double or fold

Considering the outlook for ALTN

* this was released to YouTube on 4th August 2026

Dear reader

AltynGold an Oak Bloke pick for 26 was down* from £9.42 to £8.20** a share since my prior article. That’s paying £224m mar cap that poured 53.8koz of Gold in 2025.

** it is £8.50 this morning.

So today and assuming steady state production you’re paying £4,126 per ounce of gold annual production, where each ounce generated £866 of net profit and that was selling in 2025 at an average $3,474 per ounce and the 2026 YTD gold price is $4,423, and today it is $4,035 an ounce.

ALTN generated £866 net profit per ounce sold in 2025 so that would be +£500 per ounce net profit in 2026 (assuming the $949 per ounce higher gold price is taxed at 30%)

ALTN is generating £1,366 net profit per ounce sold at a steady production level (with steady costs etc)

But ALTN plan to more than double production.

The economics are compelling particularly when you consider that the mine has a 90 year life (or 45 at double production). Then there’s a second mine Teren Sai, too.

The last time that ALTN was £8.10 per share the gold price was $3,743, so 10% below the level today. ALTN holds 90 years of reserves and plans to double production potentially in 2027.

Let’s consider the 2025 P&L and then a forecast 2026 outcome. We already know from the 1Q26 result that $56.3m of revenue was generated. Can this pace continue in 2026 at a -$1,562 AISC or better?

If so Op Profit is forecast to more than double.

Includes an estimated 2026 performance

Consider too the Balance Sheet. Shareholders received no dividend tickle in 2025. The money just went back into the business. That money strengthened PP&E by about 25% net of depreciation and grew intangibles by over $5m which is its Teren Sai potential second operation.

More noticeable is the increase of ST assets. Cash +$12m, receivables +$6m and Inventory doubling at +$23.1m. The point is the cash value of these ST assets alone is worth about $150m pre-tax.

Wait what?

Yes, inventory is valued at cost. So $37.3m of the $46.6m of inventory is roughly valued at the AISC $1,562 not at $4000 per ounce. That’s $60m of hidden value (pre tax).

So net of all ST and LT liabilities the business had about $70m of cash-like assets at the end of 2025, plus its long term assets of $119m. During 1H26 perhaps generated $45m more post tax. During 2H26 (we are now 35 days into that period) will generate $45m more.

So you’re paying $297m for a business with an EV of about $50m and that by the end of 2026 have an EV approaching zero.

…If it doesn’t spend that money!

Will it Spend?

After spending on its existing Sekisovskoye operation in 2025 ALTN plans to spend $51m in 2026 and $22m next year too. This is to support expansion from 54 Koz to 100 Koz per year at Sekisovskoye.

Second Mine Teren-Sai

The above capex excludes that for Teren-Sai. This site is directly adjacent to its existing operation and ore could initially be sent to it for processing.

Teren-Sai is currently at an advanced exploration and evaluation stage, with work focused on progressing the project toward full production status.

1.48 Moz of reserves

1.03 Moz of inferred

During 2025, the Company completed approximately 9,700 metres of core drilling, alongside sampling and topographical studies, supporting ongoing resource definition and mine planning.

Three principal target areas have been identified within the licence area. Initial evaluation indicates that plot 5 hosts gold mineralisation with grades comparable to Sekisovskoye, while plots 2 and 4 contain mixed gold and copper* resources.

*- there is no quantification of how much copper - yet.

The Company is currently progressing the application for a full production licence, with approval anticipated in late 2026. Upon receipt, detailed mine design and site preparation activities will commence.

In the early stages of development, ore from Teren-Sai may be processed at the Sekisovskoye plant, leveraging existing infrastructure and reducing initial capital requirements.

Whilst ALTN cash flow will help fund Teren-Sai it is expected that some level of debt will be required to get the second mine funded. However that would potentially turn ALTN to a 200 Koz producer.

Conclusion

With expansion plans, and an upside of Copper, ALTN appears extremely cheap at 820p. Buying a business with an EV approaching zero by the end of 2026 is just one way to express that.

Regards

The Oak Bloke

Disclaimers:

This content is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not consider your personal circumstances and is not financial, investment, tax, legal, or professional advice. Nothing here is a recommendation, offer, or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any investment. Investing involves risk, including the loss of capital. You are solely responsible for your own decisions

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