19 Comments
User's avatar
Joe - Stock Investor's avatar

Hi, would it be more reflective of true value to measure that hidden inventory at AISC + after tax profit per ounce?

The Oak Bloke's avatar

Yes it would - good point and I’ll update the article to reflect this.

Thanks!

OB

BigHatNoCattle's avatar

FYI - Saw your stream/video. The $95 million capital spend isn't historical. It's the sum of the capital spend guidance in 2026 through 2028 ($51 million in 2026 and $22 million in each of 2027/2028). The previous guidance for 2026 was $15 million. They've significantly increased underground development, mining equipment, and infrastructure spending guidance in 2026, as it includes some development capital for the proposed $125 million expansion at Sekisovskoye (Seki). Management has stated expansion to 2.0 to 2.5 Mtpa is for Seki only and grade likely will be 2.0 to 2.5 g/t going forward.

The Oak Bloke's avatar

Thanks BigHat.

If I implied the $95m was historical then I misspoke. I agree it’s 2026-2028 Capex per their guidance.

OB

BigHatNoCattle's avatar

Thus, Seki alone could go to 150k ounces per year at 2.5 Mtpa, average grade of 2.25 g/t, and ~85% recovery.

The Oak Bloke's avatar

I’ve been pretty conservative on assuming the grade/recovery improves (pending evidence) but yes if they do hit those levels the upside is impressive.

OB

BigHatNoCattle's avatar

In that scenario, annual FCF would be very near current market cap at spot pricing.

John Cutmore's avatar

OB more gold articles please :) You're obviously the market mover in this space ;)

My portfolio finally catching a bid after a tumultuous 6 months.

Wondered if looking at energy, uranium in next few weeks. The Sprott uranium physical trading at a 13% for any one wanting exposure.

The Oak Bloke's avatar

Hi John,

yes looking at SQZ, ITH, DEC, PTAL suncor, and a little energy tiddler too.

Recently covered UUUU and I’ll look at GCL again soon too.

Stay tuned!

OB

John Cutmore's avatar

Suncor results were ridiculous 😂 think SQZ tomorrow?

RJ's avatar

CA.SU link in OB reply is a dodgy typo

John Cutmore's avatar

Good week for PMs OB! My best week all year with Tech, Value and PMs coming altogether. Certainly feels a bubbling up moment. Strange human quirk how the losses overwhelm more than euphoria on gains.

Ed's avatar

Altyngold is probably the cheapest and safest gold producer, but they really need to finally distribute a dividend to rerate

The Oak Bloke's avatar

Yes it will come - but growing production will make this much more valuable and less risky in the long run than a dividend would.

Jack's avatar

HI OB,

With respect to Junior miners I'm sure you've been asked before but why are you not keen on Serabi gold ? Is it because of the licence issue and life of mines? CEO Hodgson thinks the tapajos region in Brazil has great potential

Bill Frown's avatar

Thanks OB. Push to shove(l) etc. would you choose this over THX though, with its $3,000 profit margin on gold, potential new mines and dividend etc?

The Oak Bloke's avatar

Good Q Bill. If I had to choose just one I think THX would edge over ALTN for the tax but ALTN has the edge based on years of reserves (which THX might have but haven’t been defined/developed yet).

Thankfully I don’t need to choose and I can hold both each for their merits!

OB

Bill Frown's avatar

Thanks for the reply OB. Not sure if you'll see this now, but THX have issued a massive teaser about the Segilola MLE this morning 😎