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Fluffchucker's avatar

With the next numbers due soon it will be interesting to update these stats. However I agree with tourist in that FCF rather than EBITDA that is the most relevant. Certainly the market is of that opinion I believe.

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Fluffchucker's avatar

https://open.spotify.com/episode/3fqkWNrjO3KVZJeKxVDXIl

So if gas goes from $3 to $8 in two or three years what's the value of 30-40 yrs of DEC PDP?....A lot!

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William Daughan's avatar

I am curious why DEC has not listed on a US exchange, since its entire operation is in America. Is there a compelling reason?

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The Oak Bloke's avatar

In Rusty's own words (in the interview in my article "DEC the halls") when DEC listed they were too small for the US markets. They have grown substantially since 2017 and again in his words the "listing in the UK has been really good for us". I think in the same interview he says his wife doesn't agree as he wakes at 3am US Central Time to check in what's happening with DEC on the UK markets!!

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Another oil and gas tourist's avatar

You are using the wrong metric, EBITDA, use instead FCF. Capex and debt/interests are critical here.

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The Oak Bloke's avatar

Interesting - focus today was to compare and contrast DEC vs its peers. I didn't see anything remarkable to write about on those metrics. Did I miss something? All have sizeable debts, EQT has ESG-linked, investment grade amortising debt similar to DEC.

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Another oil and gas tourist's avatar

In highly indebted E&Ps being a low-cost producer is key, together with a lower than average decline rate and one of the best capex efficiency levels. Additionally, EQT higher netback allows it to generate higher OCF, which together with one reasonable decline, allows it to continue investing capex and repay the debt. I'm not an expert in none of them, but EQT is one of the natural gas pure players with the lower risk compared to peers.

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Fluffchucker's avatar

Excellent...as always. Just wondering what is your largest position 😉.....GROW?

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The Oak Bloke's avatar

Thank you Mr A. TEK and its various portfolio constituents (BELL, SALT, LUCY) are my biggest position.

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Fluffchucker's avatar

DEC has been my biggest for the past 7 years. Pretty shocked at the current share price. What's your view on the US listing?.. they will have to sustain the dividend at all costs IMO!

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The Oak Bloke's avatar

I’ll be releasing a new DEC article this weekend - it’s in draft right now

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Fluffchucker's avatar

Good choice!!

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Oct 29, 2023
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The Oak Bloke's avatar

It's a very interesting topic to focus on - yes I'll consider whether I can add anything of value around this aspect.

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