OB25 for 25 Ideas #7 to #12
Talking through why I chose the ideas
Dear reader,
It wasn’t an entirely comfortable sitting position in today’s picture. I’m sure you understand the gravity of the situation.
Thank you so much to the 73 supporters who have contributed to the Emmaus 2025 fund raise. We are getting really much closer to the target.
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Reviewing Videos 1-6
Interestingly NBDG is proving the most popular video so far. 109.5 hours of viewing pleasure for interested readers (watchers).
Idea #7 Thor Explorations
Idea #8 EMV Capital
I walk through the holdings and my thinking.
Idea #9 Cadence Minerals
No, I walk through my model and thinking, especially the Project Financing and what the greediest Dragon investor looks like.
Idea #10 Ocean Wilsons
New content? Yes, I walk through my data model and consider the FX movement since I wrote it.
Idea #11 Avation
New content? Yes, I consider the AGM statement and tweak my article.
Idea #12 Water Intelligence
New content? No but I walk through my article and my data model.
Regards
The Oak Bloke.
Disclaimers:
This article is not advice. These videos are not advice. You make your own investment decisions.
Micro cap and Nano cap holdings might have a higher risk and higher volatility than companies that are traditionally defined as "blue chip"
On WATR, I think there are 2 mistakes (1) PBT for 9M 2024 was 7.7M and thus 1.7M in Q3 and therefore no slowdown is expected by Dowgate in Q4 (ie 1.9M Q4 forecast vs 1.7M in Q3) (2) the Dallas franchise made PBT of 0.9M in the LTM period prior to acquisition and therefore not sure what the 29% margin refers to, but it is not the PBT margin of Dallas franchise. So the PBT growth for 2025 excluding Dallas assumed by Dowgate is 0.6M, which represents ~6% organic profit growth.