On WATR, I think there are 2 mistakes (1) PBT for 9M 2024 was 7.7M and thus 1.7M in Q3 and therefore no slowdown is expected by Dowgate in Q4 (ie 1.9M Q4 forecast vs 1.7M in Q3) (2) the Dallas franchise made PBT of 0.9M in the LTM period prior to acquisition and therefore not sure what the 29% margin refers to, but it is not the PBT margin of Dallas franchise. So the PBT growth for 2025 excluding Dallas assumed by Dowgate is 0.6M, which represents ~6% organic profit growth.
On the first point I agree I've miscalculated the Q3 so have amended the article. Thanks for spotting.
On the 2nd point I do make clear that the 29% margin refers to the historic average direct margin. The Dallas franchise moving to direct therefore changes margin going forwards from Q4. The difference in margin compared to the 6.75% on $6m per annum is 22.25% of $6m - assuming no growth. So I diagree that that is a mistake.
On WATR, I think there are 2 mistakes (1) PBT for 9M 2024 was 7.7M and thus 1.7M in Q3 and therefore no slowdown is expected by Dowgate in Q4 (ie 1.9M Q4 forecast vs 1.7M in Q3) (2) the Dallas franchise made PBT of 0.9M in the LTM period prior to acquisition and therefore not sure what the 29% margin refers to, but it is not the PBT margin of Dallas franchise. So the PBT growth for 2025 excluding Dallas assumed by Dowgate is 0.6M, which represents ~6% organic profit growth.
Teubsch
On the first point I agree I've miscalculated the Q3 so have amended the article. Thanks for spotting.
On the 2nd point I do make clear that the 29% margin refers to the historic average direct margin. The Dallas franchise moving to direct therefore changes margin going forwards from Q4. The difference in margin compared to the 6.75% on $6m per annum is 22.25% of $6m - assuming no growth. So I diagree that that is a mistake.
OB