Reminiscing on the 2024 Fun Run

6 months later - still going strong?

Jun 26, 2025

Dear reader,

It’s 6 months since the 2024 runners crossed the finish line of 31/12/2024. The end was covered in the cunningly named “Fun Run Finish”.

18 months since I wrote the rationale for the OB2024 in “Happy Christmas Reader”.

Like Forest Gump what happened if they had just kept on running? Let’s say they just felt like it.

#1 Mr Scott 31.3%

Mr Scott would have solidified his lead. Another 8% gain in 1H25.

Here’s Mr Scott’s ideas for 2024 as they stand today (26th June 2025)

#2 Mr Arby 10.8%

Having lost -2.3% on the non-US “international stock index fund” 2025 YTD +16.3% is a big turnaround. But even the US index +11.8% in 2024 gets +3.9% in 2025. Bonds breakeven while Bitcoin delivered an 18.7% return for Mr Arby but was just a 5% weighting.

#3 Mr Bloke 4.4%

Some big winners and some big losers - you choose your narrative. Some important lessons learned too. Lessons that appeared to have helped me in 2025.

#3-1 KAZERA

Kazera’s market cap is 50% covered by a legal settlement from Hebei and is now in production. With 50% of the sand being HMS this should be a money printer. But this is not yet proven. Even so the +155% might make you think the upside is in the price. Paying £8m net of the debt allow for an operation that should generate £2m-£3m per year? With a 35X beach prospectively to follow?

#3-2 Georgia Capital

I remember some discussions last year where a few readers were determined to prove this was over valued…. at £10! It’s now £19! So it has nearly doubled but remains at a 41% discount, even where its businesses are valued at around 9X EV/EBITDA. The GEL191,460 for its 20% Water Utility holding is a £1m uplift that landed in just the past few days.

#3-3 BSRT

There are numerous upsides at BSRT with more to come. The £2.8m YTD gain to NAV doesn’t really convey the value here. Its discount has shrank from 50% to 33% but the NAV holds a number of hidden aspects. A sale of Futura, strategic Tungsten holding with options, Royalties over Silver in Russia, Gold in Zimbabwe and Coal in Oz, as well as dividends in Morocco. I remain excited by the outlook here.

#3-4 TCAP

I covered this quite recently in “TCAP in your earth” and was shocked at the comparatives to US listed BGC and others. TCAP’s cash generation is very impressive.

#3-5 TEK

It’s a long while since I wrote about TEK. I remain a shareholder.

That decision is largely based on Guident, this article is worth a read.

Although the jury remains out on Microsalt but so does the verdict. Show me the money. Gen IP could become interesting but show me the money. Even if my Lucyd glasses remain a prize possession LUCY sales growth remains elusive. Show me the.. you get the idea. I looked at ex-idea BELL down from when I called time.

#3-6 REA

This Indonesia Palm Oil producer paid me a shed load of divis in 2024.

Another 4.5p dividend arrived last month, and this continues to do well. In fact is a take over target maybe.

#3-7 DEC

This has had plenty of coverage and its most recent news to JV with Carlyle with $2bn of seed capital is further good news.

Carlyle’s Global Credit platform manages $199bn, as part of a $611bn portfolio. The due diligence to have achieved a seat at Carlyle’s table is impressive. Carlyle has achieved a fully covered yield in excess of 10% for the past 6 years. DEC will originate, operate and service (and earn fees for doing so) while Carlyle will fund and package to then securitise as an ABS. There could be a sharing of risk via a subordinated or residual interest, or that fees are structured to reflect this.

This will be much like the LION structure that DEC created in late 2023 but on a much, much, much larger scale and without any direct DEC ownership. The ARO liability will be part of the securitisation so this will be a further area where DEC will earn fees on plugging in the future… quite a different business model but one that will deliver economies of scale while delivering fee income and simultaneously keeping growth and shareholder dilution quite separate. In fact with continued buy backs this is anti-dilutive, supported by growing off-balance sheet funds.

If we consider $2bn is 10X that of DP Lion Equity’s $200m and that DP Lion had a headline earnings of $35m EBITDA per annum, well that is pro rata $350m EBITDA. If we deduct -$200m for Carlyle (a 10% return) and $50m depletion/depreciation that leaves $50m EBIT for DEC. That’s a crude estimate but it is not an unreasonable estimate as to what this could be worth. With synergies adding $10m-$20m perhaps.

I’ll cover the other 9 ideas on another article.

#4 Mr Archer

A big congratulations to Mr Archer who overtakes Mr Thompson in 1H25. GMET is a star performer and the scary thing is that GMET is still only getting started.

Other best ideas are starting to move upwards. Asiamet is a notable example and Sovereign other (Mr Archer persuaded me to the merits of SVML so I’m now a shareholder).

Other ideas like Conroy Gold take some believing at their current price of 3.5p, what with gold prices as they are. High gold prices mean little when there’s zero production.

#5 Mr Thompson

The Bargain Shares 2024 now number just six. The -100% are closed funds with the proceeds calculated as dividends which of course “pay their way” but overall a <1% gain in 18 months must be a disappointment for 400,000 readers of the IC. Assuming they invested in all eight ideas.

NextEq is down -54.4% so a bit less than my DGI9 idea, but not all that different.

#6&7 Mr Roasts

I recorded a short(ish) video discussing these 2024 ideas.

And if you do look up and read my Guident article don’t forget I said “If Guident is still only worth $18m in 2025, I’ll eat my Paddy Ashdown Hat.” 6 months left on that one!

Regards

The Oak Bloke

Disclaimers:

This is not advice - make your own investment decisions.

Micro cap and Nano cap holdings might have a higher risk and higher volatility than companies that are traditionally defined as "blue chip"