Wise has a great moat and is a world beating company. I hold 2000 shares for the long term. They have sacrificed short term profit for the future growth.
I particularly appreciated the framing around wholesale unlock and the SWIFT co-opetition angle. The infrastructure shift is the part many underestimate.
The key insight for me isn’t the quadrillion headline numbers (those may distract!), but the steady commercial cross-border opportunity.
At ~0.5% share of B2B/B2C flows, Wise doesn’t need heroic assumptions — just continued mid-teens income growth and incremental wholesale penetration to justify meaningful upside over time.
On fairly conservative assumptions — take-rate drifting toward ~0.35–0.40%, modest operating leverage, and no dramatic multiple expansion — that could plausibly support a~ £75bn valuation over the next decade.
That’s not a quadrillion narrative; it’s steady infrastructure compounding.
The SWIFT integration point is especially important.
If banks can keep their existing messaging layer while settling via Wise rails, friction to adoption falls materially. That’s quiet, structural progress rather than hype.
Whether it reaches 10% share or not, the combination of scale, cost advantage, regulatory credibility and founder discipline makes the compounding path increasingly visible.
Thanks for putting the numbers into context — it’s always useful to zoom out, and developing a new angle on a currently under-appreciated equity.
I started buying as part of my annual portfolio review before Xmas. It's always heartening to read your in-depth coverage concerning my gut hunch about Wise. I've been a customer for 3 years now and, like Victor Kiam, was so impressed I bought the company!
0.4% of Chrysalis too, looks like they sold down, possibly too early? The whole point of a closed end fund is you are in control of your capital. Agree this stock is undervalued, yet growing market share. Is it the curse of listing on the U.K. market?
No, I’d say there’s a widespread sell off of PE. e.g. KKR is $90.64 from $150 last August.
Of course the point with PE is that it’s hard to value the assets. Plus there’s Private Credit and Real Estate. With CHRY it’s quite easy. No Real Estate, Private Credit. It’s predominantly Starling Bank and its FY26 results to 31/3/26 are 3 months away.
We also know from the 31/12/25 CHRY update that it’s just won the Tangerine Bank Engine Deal, and has done a brand refresh and is introducing new products and services to its banking customers.
Wise has a great moat and is a world beating company. I hold 2000 shares for the long term. They have sacrificed short term profit for the future growth.
Excellent write up which focuses on nuances missed by most others. Thank you
Thanks for this, John.
I particularly appreciated the framing around wholesale unlock and the SWIFT co-opetition angle. The infrastructure shift is the part many underestimate.
The key insight for me isn’t the quadrillion headline numbers (those may distract!), but the steady commercial cross-border opportunity.
At ~0.5% share of B2B/B2C flows, Wise doesn’t need heroic assumptions — just continued mid-teens income growth and incremental wholesale penetration to justify meaningful upside over time.
On fairly conservative assumptions — take-rate drifting toward ~0.35–0.40%, modest operating leverage, and no dramatic multiple expansion — that could plausibly support a~ £75bn valuation over the next decade.
That’s not a quadrillion narrative; it’s steady infrastructure compounding.
The SWIFT integration point is especially important.
If banks can keep their existing messaging layer while settling via Wise rails, friction to adoption falls materially. That’s quiet, structural progress rather than hype.
Whether it reaches 10% share or not, the combination of scale, cost advantage, regulatory credibility and founder discipline makes the compounding path increasingly visible.
Thanks for putting the numbers into context — it’s always useful to zoom out, and developing a new angle on a currently under-appreciated equity.
I started buying as part of my annual portfolio review before Xmas. It's always heartening to read your in-depth coverage concerning my gut hunch about Wise. I've been a customer for 3 years now and, like Victor Kiam, was so impressed I bought the company!
0.4% of Chrysalis too, looks like they sold down, possibly too early? The whole point of a closed end fund is you are in control of your capital. Agree this stock is undervalued, yet growing market share. Is it the curse of listing on the U.K. market?
No, I’d say there’s a widespread sell off of PE. e.g. KKR is $90.64 from $150 last August.
Of course the point with PE is that it’s hard to value the assets. Plus there’s Private Credit and Real Estate. With CHRY it’s quite easy. No Real Estate, Private Credit. It’s predominantly Starling Bank and its FY26 results to 31/3/26 are 3 months away.
We also know from the 31/12/25 CHRY update that it’s just won the Tangerine Bank Engine Deal, and has done a brand refresh and is introducing new products and services to its banking customers.
Then of course there’s other assets on top.
I’m buying.
OB