110 articles - Winners, Losers and Methane
110 articles - Winners, Losers and Methane
An Oak Bloke Top 20 Portfolio Update
The OB 20 started with £1,000 each of the OB20 on 29th December including spreads and dealing costs at £19,850. Today the portfolio is worth £20,264. 1.3% return YTD (or 2% if you ignore costs - I don’t)
TEK #1
Tek leads with an over 20% rise YTD after spread and costs. The Microsalt IPO is imminent and it borrowed £0.6m this week from one of its holdings to fund the IPO. Innovative I thought. Desperate said the bulletin boards. There remains almost universal disdain to this stock. Yet it holds some extremely interesting (in my opinion) growth stocks. Microsalt is a monster in the making. When CEO Cliff says it’s a $100m business it’s easy to see the path to that. Don’t you mean $1bn Cliff? Not only does it already have strong US retail presence, but commercial presence with global food companies too. I think the simple fact that people can’t see is if you can take the simplest product that people need every day and create a USP you can make VAST profits. I’ve included a link below to Amazon UK reader. £46.76 a kilo. Why would you pay “Wagyu Beef Per Kg” prices for salt? Simple. Using Microsalt is one of the biggest ways to reduce your blood pressure. Doing that reduces most of the largest risks you face as a human being listed below… it won’t help with road accidents, so please take care. But heart disease, cancer, stroke, kidney disease…. Most are touched by one of more of those diseases in their family and friends circle - so tell everyone you know about Microsalt. If you use 1Kg a year that’s £50.
£50 a year for, statistically speaking, a 2 years longer life according to the BHF.
“Smart brands don’t just ride trend shifts. They start them” said Ann Handley
Microsalt already have CVS Pharmacy - the US’ “Boots the Chemist” equivalent and maybe Pepsi - or equivalent - who’ve ordered 30 tonnes. The IPO is to build the 1st Microsalt factory.
I would recommend reading about Tek’s holding in Guident too. Quite a number of my readers haven’t read this article, which baffles me when “humans in the loop” is an incredible patent to hold.
ANIC is ok, ok ANIC
ANIC is also progressing well. Up 30% but dropped back a bit. The value on offer here is also astonishing. The NAV progression I mapped out clearly shows the book price is conservative yet it trades below that. More about ANIC when I speak about Methane.
REA-l gains!
REA Prefs are up 10% too. Perhaps the allure of a 20%+ dividend is too tempting? The news about the partial sale of assets at book yet this trades at 90% discount to book - again it’s a no brainer in my opinion.
TMT heads for a BOOM
TMT has been quietly moving up too. It’s largest holding Bolt continues to grow from 170 to 260 cities in the past year and its ridership has doubled suggesting growth in its existing markets too. An obvious mark to market is Uber and Lyft and on that basis TMT remains ridiculously cheap.
TRR-la la la
Trident is buoyed by its news this week by progress at its royalty on La Preciosa owned by Avino. The land use agreement gives it the green light and 1.25% NSR royalties worth over $3m a year accrue to TRR once it’s in full production (from 2027) with 2% outside the two main veins.
On the losers many are simply still on a loss due to spreads - we are only 2 weeks in of course - 50 to go.
Weepy IP
IP Group had mixed fortunes YTD with its holdings ONT and IUG as I covered. I remain positive about these, despite the price falls. My coverage of ARIX is an example where “all of a sudden” the picture changes. IP Group is stuffed with Phase 2/3 with “events” due in 2024.
POW’n down
POW (thesis here) is another negative, down 10% YTD, but I have no idea why! It holds 61.03% of GMET and GMET own Garfield and sample drilling at Garfield was announced with these stunning assays this week. Even 4.98 g/t gold alone is impressive!
It also announced a Memorandum of Understanding with the Saudi Arabian Government this week…. this news is phenonemally good for POW. The reaction to the news is very similar to what I posited in does the market have a bad case of Muffle Ear? for JLP (who have similar UAE backing).
POW announced we are “establishing a mutually beneficial relationship in order to pursue suitable exploration opportunities in Saudi Arabia. POW will offer highly experienced technical support to potential exploration projects, and MISA will provide project opportunities and potential support for such projects as applicable.”
Quite why the market doesn’t understand that “potential support” means cash funding…. and what has POW lacked? Cash! I’m very positive about how this will develop. If you read the economist you’d know Saudi Arabia has $2.5tn of mineral wealth. If only POW had a trillionaire backer. Erm…..
METHANE
Is the OB20 a massive Methane Play?
First, let’s consider DEC and its action to reduce methane emissions. As an aside, where there’s muck there’s brass, for DEC. But nowhere in the current market price. MERP offers opportunity as well as cost. HH NATURAL GAS IS at $3.16 up from $2.50/mmbtu. Did the cold snap warm investors hearts to DEC, did it ‘eck!
Here are global O&G methane emissions 2021. I notice, actually, coal lights up Appalachia (the red blobs below). But Ted’n’Kathy ain’t tellin’. DEC’s Coach Carter Stewardship was timed perfectly when the COP26 and COP28 focus is now very much on methane. COP29 heads to that big central Asia blob of orange in the map below, next year. The IRA and specifically MERP introduces costs to business. Coal will decline over 10% a year, while natural gas remains a key fuel while renewables grow, and LNG gas exports rise (where global TTF and JKM prices are up to 10x higher).
This is an O&G methane emissions map. Notice the north sea lit up reader? No? That’s one for Keir Starmer to think about when he says no more North Sea Oil (and Gas). Which bright blob shall we get it from instead, Keir?
Enough about O&G. Consider now the blue blobs on the map. What are the “other sources”? Waste heaps (rubbish tips in the UK - a phrase which greatly amuses Americans!) and biomass fires for the most part. Also agriculture and what’s known as Enteric Fermentation, which is what any animal does when it expels wind. Parp!
Consider ANIC. I previously spoke about how ANIC could tackle a problem as bad as Oil & Gas. Here’s the evidence. 29% (Enteric) plays 29% (O&G/Coal/Biomass).
Scarily, when I spoke in the ANIC thesis that everyone wants to eat meat in the chart below there’s the evidence. Agriculture historically has had an outsized voice (but so too has O&G). Will government support Cellular Agriculture? Hardly anyone demands it of them, not even the stop Oil people (to my knowledge). Isn’t it ironic they should perhaps focus on stopping Cows! Ciao Cow! The evidence seems compelling. Write to your MP, reader. Find your nearest placard waver…. Demand action!
But consider the above chart again, reader, and let’s turn to I(X). (thesis here).
IX has fallen a little this week, no nearly zero trades. This is on an 83% discount to last NAV. Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Methanol for Shipping is its largest play via its 34.8% holding in WasteFuel. WasteFuel turns refuse into methanol, to power ships and planes. Do you see 27% (composed of Agriculture Sources, WasteWater and Landfills)? 27% of global emissions reader! Nearly as bad as Oil & Gas. Yes, reader, time to write to your MP again. Time to find placard-equipped protestors. Demand action!
But who on earth can help with these emissions? That’s where WASTEFUEL is planning to introduce the processing of Biomass into fuel.
One of WasteFuel’s numerous high-profile backers (and customer) is the shipping company Maersk. Who won Time’s Best Invention 2023, reader, and what was it for? What fuel will Maersk be using in this ship? WASTEFUEL.
Enjoy your weekend, and this is not advice (the article I mean, not the weekend bit)
Oak