Apax, down 22% total return over 1 year, is certainly a laggard compared to Pantheon International (PIN), down 9% or HarbourVest (HVPE), up 3%. All are on about a 41% discount. If one thinks these type of Trusts are going to recover, what makes APEX worse? At least it's paying over 9% dividend, unlike the others.
This had perked up to £1.20 but has slipped back. All the solar ITs seem to have done similar like FGEN. I think interest rates cuts look less certain in UK (10 year gilt are running higher) so the discount rates will stay high. I wonder if investors were banking on cuts and were starting to chase up the shares.
Interestingly though the infra ITs have had a good run, SEQI, HICL which i would have thought also would be rate dependant unless investors are thinking physical assets will be good inflation hedges like airports, bridges, toll roads etc.
If DJT gets this spending bill past precious metal miners are going to the moon along with any other company that has pricing power, good moats etc.
There is something ironic when depressed asset prices are due to a mark-to-market to the risk-free rate when the risk of the risk-free rate (and its sustainability) is itself being questioned.
That seems to be an opportunity for said assets.
I believe there are strong deflationary aspects alongside other inflationary aspects so it’s not a clear-cut picture i.e. the strength of the US economy evidenced by strong jobs reports (including last Friday) and April 2025 inflation in the US was 2.3%!
Some say $40 oil is on the cards. That will be incredibly deflationary for the world.
For the UK the Non-Dom exodus might be prove to be highly deflationary too.
I'm at the point where I should probably just sell the enviro trusts at a loss and reinvest into gold stocks for the rest of the year. I'll probably have made back the losses by year end.
In the UK if the government could force 50% cuts in energy costs and stimulate competition between the suppliers then this alone would probably be a massive stimulant to UK economy and be a great disinflationary force along side low oil. It might actually stimulate some "real" GDP growth not public sector non job growth.
The British Gas boss saying we need even higher energy prices is living in cuckoo land. Unfortunately Labour are probably listening to him. Can't remember if was you OB but Centrica make a shed load of money from "energy trading" no doubt shifting money from BG to Centrica so it doesn't look like over charging.
Any thoughts on Drax? I know its hated but PE of 5 and unlikely to be shutdown as is near 10% of UK power generation. I'm probably late to this but pays 4% and buy backs complete with a low PE. My investment thought of the weekend!
Apax, down 22% total return over 1 year, is certainly a laggard compared to Pantheon International (PIN), down 9% or HarbourVest (HVPE), up 3%. All are on about a 41% discount. If one thinks these type of Trusts are going to recover, what makes APEX worse? At least it's paying over 9% dividend, unlike the others.
This had perked up to £1.20 but has slipped back. All the solar ITs seem to have done similar like FGEN. I think interest rates cuts look less certain in UK (10 year gilt are running higher) so the discount rates will stay high. I wonder if investors were banking on cuts and were starting to chase up the shares.
Interestingly though the infra ITs have had a good run, SEQI, HICL which i would have thought also would be rate dependant unless investors are thinking physical assets will be good inflation hedges like airports, bridges, toll roads etc.
If DJT gets this spending bill past precious metal miners are going to the moon along with any other company that has pricing power, good moats etc.
There is something ironic when depressed asset prices are due to a mark-to-market to the risk-free rate when the risk of the risk-free rate (and its sustainability) is itself being questioned.
That seems to be an opportunity for said assets.
I believe there are strong deflationary aspects alongside other inflationary aspects so it’s not a clear-cut picture i.e. the strength of the US economy evidenced by strong jobs reports (including last Friday) and April 2025 inflation in the US was 2.3%!
Some say $40 oil is on the cards. That will be incredibly deflationary for the world.
For the UK the Non-Dom exodus might be prove to be highly deflationary too.
So a complex picture.
OB
I'm at the point where I should probably just sell the enviro trusts at a loss and reinvest into gold stocks for the rest of the year. I'll probably have made back the losses by year end.
In the UK if the government could force 50% cuts in energy costs and stimulate competition between the suppliers then this alone would probably be a massive stimulant to UK economy and be a great disinflationary force along side low oil. It might actually stimulate some "real" GDP growth not public sector non job growth.
The British Gas boss saying we need even higher energy prices is living in cuckoo land. Unfortunately Labour are probably listening to him. Can't remember if was you OB but Centrica make a shed load of money from "energy trading" no doubt shifting money from BG to Centrica so it doesn't look like over charging.
Any thoughts on Drax? I know its hated but PE of 5 and unlikely to be shutdown as is near 10% of UK power generation. I'm probably late to this but pays 4% and buy backs complete with a low PE. My investment thought of the weekend!