Hi Oak Bloke. Care to share your thoughts on the performance of the CHaR share price since yesterday’s RNS? IMO the market has completely over reacted.
We know the Footwall/Anchois East fault block was just a pilot hole for 2U (prospective) gas, and was just 383Bcf of 754Bcf of 2U gas, and 383Bcf of 1,391Bcf gas at Anchois.
So it was upside and separate to the main event - the North Flank 213 Bcf and South Flank 424 Bcf total 637 Bcf of 2C. (Contingent).
So that's **1/4** of the gas - ignoring that 2U prospectivity is NOT THE SAME RISK as 2C gas, in the rest of Anchois. Let alone any new finds at Anchois, any in the wider Lixus, and any within the Rissana licence area. also that's ignoring onshore, hydrogen, Etana, and other bits too.
So is a 50% fall on losing 1/4th an overreaction? Absolutely!
If you consider that 2U "usually" has a near zero chance of success and there is zero in a risked NAV while 2C is usually a "50/50" chance of success then giving it a 1/4 weighting is VERY generous! Really, a share price fall of even 5% would've been an over reaction.
If you further consider Anchois is around 2/3 of the current risked NAV then we are actually talking 1/6th not 1/4 in any case.
We know Morocco imports 90% of its energy (mainly coal). We know Morocco wants to be a powerhouse to Europe and also an industrial base - that needs power. Clean power. ONHYM will be under pressure from its bosses (the Moroccan gov't) to get this resource producing.
ENOG are also determined and need to make Anchois work, all the eggs in the Israel basket (once the divestment of Italy etc is complete) is not a comfortable position to be in.
So those are my thoughts - hope they are useful to you.
Hi Oak Bloke. Care to share your thoughts on the performance of the CHaR share price since yesterday’s RNS? IMO the market has completely over reacted.
Hi Kiss,
We know the Footwall/Anchois East fault block was just a pilot hole for 2U (prospective) gas, and was just 383Bcf of 754Bcf of 2U gas, and 383Bcf of 1,391Bcf gas at Anchois.
So it was upside and separate to the main event - the North Flank 213 Bcf and South Flank 424 Bcf total 637 Bcf of 2C. (Contingent).
So that's **1/4** of the gas - ignoring that 2U prospectivity is NOT THE SAME RISK as 2C gas, in the rest of Anchois. Let alone any new finds at Anchois, any in the wider Lixus, and any within the Rissana licence area. also that's ignoring onshore, hydrogen, Etana, and other bits too.
So is a 50% fall on losing 1/4th an overreaction? Absolutely!
If you consider that 2U "usually" has a near zero chance of success and there is zero in a risked NAV while 2C is usually a "50/50" chance of success then giving it a 1/4 weighting is VERY generous! Really, a share price fall of even 5% would've been an over reaction.
If you further consider Anchois is around 2/3 of the current risked NAV then we are actually talking 1/6th not 1/4 in any case.
We know Morocco imports 90% of its energy (mainly coal). We know Morocco wants to be a powerhouse to Europe and also an industrial base - that needs power. Clean power. ONHYM will be under pressure from its bosses (the Moroccan gov't) to get this resource producing.
ENOG are also determined and need to make Anchois work, all the eggs in the Israel basket (once the divestment of Italy etc is complete) is not a comfortable position to be in.
So those are my thoughts - hope they are useful to you.
OB
Your feedback is much appreciated Oak Bloke. This would be my take on it too. Total over reaction from the market.
You've done some work on this - thanks ! My toe is dipped.....
Thanks for covering this OB 🍺