I think your revenue and cost of sale presentation is different between FY25 and FY26
FY26 looks right but FY25 looks to have some netting down in it. Expectations for revenue are north of 200m usd and you have revenue of around half of that. Bottom line looks sensible. Just FYI
Ah yes, I can see I've done 2 things. First I stripped out the FX, minority interest, and exceptionals in the FY26. But to compound things I used the "Net of Chrome" numbers in FY25 P&L! The net profit is correct but I've amended it to show the correct/consistent presentation of sales and cost of sales between FY24, FY25 and FY26 (JLP did offset chrome against PGMs at one stage in the past but now report each metal separately)
It's a good question. Delta asked me a similar question a few months back (see https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/jlp-jube-ous-or-jubi-lent/comments) and this answer probably sums up the trust question quite well. i.e. trust them as engineers? 100%. But trust them for shareholder interest? The jury is out (but until now it has been a question of engineering).
OB
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The quick answer is the NAV per share has risen in those years from 5.4c to 8.5c per share i.e. despite additional shares there has been even more additional value. But what is the value? I went through the 4 Annual Reports and I'd recommend visiting the cash flow report on each of the 4 and consider the "investment" spend. That's basically why they have diluted shares. It's about £150m of investment spend.
What has £150m and 0.8bn additional shares provided? (And 4 years of Operational Cash Flow too)
2021 - Sable Copper Refinery acquired
2022 - Expansion of Inyoni PGM/Chrome Plant
- Build out Roan Copper Concentrator Plant
2023 - Expansion of Chrome - front-end modules
- Expansion of Copper - front-end modules
- Sorting out problems with Electricity and Water
2024 - Intellectual Property Processing (also in earlier years)
- Expansion of Chrome (modules)
- Expansion of Copper (Sable upgrade and Roan Front-End)
- Kitwe Copper Project
- Acquisition of 95% of Munkoyo Copper Open Pit Mine (Project M)
- Acquisition of 51% of Project G
- Mufilira Test Work
- Acquisition of Large Waste Rock Project
Post Period
- Project G increased 14% to 65%
- Sable Upgrade (25ktpa)
To conclude and to consider "ethics" and "ability to execute". On ethics they've done what they said they were going to do. To do so has required investment. There has been an element of bad luck (aka working in Africa) with power outages and disruption. Also the substantial PGM price fall wasn't entirely predictable. So I would say they appear to have acted honorably.
On ability to execute they have proven they are excellent engineers, have proven their "module front-end" strategy, and cost improvements via process excellence. JLP have also proven I think they can build a business. What remains unproven to some extent is Jubilee's ability to drive profits. Again there have been a lot of moving parts and progress hasn't always been as fast as investors expected. The share price reflects this. Platinum, Palladium and Rhodium are all beginning to show signs of price appreciation. Copper is at a decent price and Chrome of course is highly profitable.
So turning investment into profit is the next step and there's several reasons to think they will succeed.
Hi Nick, I've doubled my position on THX and completely agree. I've a draft article almost ready to go out which covers Thor. There's been quite a lot of negative sentiment towards Mali-based miners so perhaps people are tarring THX with the same brush? But you and I know Nigeria is a very different jurisdiction....
Yup I went heavily in on thx a couple of months ago and have been adding on the bowls, so average price c. 15p.
Oak Bloke
I think your revenue and cost of sale presentation is different between FY25 and FY26
FY26 looks right but FY25 looks to have some netting down in it. Expectations for revenue are north of 200m usd and you have revenue of around half of that. Bottom line looks sensible. Just FYI
Hi Neil, thanks for the heads up I'll double check it now!
Ah yes, I can see I've done 2 things. First I stripped out the FX, minority interest, and exceptionals in the FY26. But to compound things I used the "Net of Chrome" numbers in FY25 P&L! The net profit is correct but I've amended it to show the correct/consistent presentation of sales and cost of sales between FY24, FY25 and FY26 (JLP did offset chrome against PGMs at one stage in the past but now report each metal separately)
Sorry and thanks again for spotting that!
OB
No worries. I fell into this trap before as i agree they used to net chrome off.
The analysis is great !!
Do you trust the directors of this company? As I recall a few years ago, they used to issue very positive forecasts that never happened.
Teamwork
It's a good question. Delta asked me a similar question a few months back (see https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/jlp-jube-ous-or-jubi-lent/comments) and this answer probably sums up the trust question quite well. i.e. trust them as engineers? 100%. But trust them for shareholder interest? The jury is out (but until now it has been a question of engineering).
OB
---
The quick answer is the NAV per share has risen in those years from 5.4c to 8.5c per share i.e. despite additional shares there has been even more additional value. But what is the value? I went through the 4 Annual Reports and I'd recommend visiting the cash flow report on each of the 4 and consider the "investment" spend. That's basically why they have diluted shares. It's about £150m of investment spend.
What has £150m and 0.8bn additional shares provided? (And 4 years of Operational Cash Flow too)
2021 - Sable Copper Refinery acquired
2022 - Expansion of Inyoni PGM/Chrome Plant
- Build out Roan Copper Concentrator Plant
2023 - Expansion of Chrome - front-end modules
- Expansion of Copper - front-end modules
- Sorting out problems with Electricity and Water
2024 - Intellectual Property Processing (also in earlier years)
- Expansion of Chrome (modules)
- Expansion of Copper (Sable upgrade and Roan Front-End)
- Kitwe Copper Project
- Acquisition of 95% of Munkoyo Copper Open Pit Mine (Project M)
- Acquisition of 51% of Project G
- Mufilira Test Work
- Acquisition of Large Waste Rock Project
Post Period
- Project G increased 14% to 65%
- Sable Upgrade (25ktpa)
To conclude and to consider "ethics" and "ability to execute". On ethics they've done what they said they were going to do. To do so has required investment. There has been an element of bad luck (aka working in Africa) with power outages and disruption. Also the substantial PGM price fall wasn't entirely predictable. So I would say they appear to have acted honorably.
On ability to execute they have proven they are excellent engineers, have proven their "module front-end" strategy, and cost improvements via process excellence. JLP have also proven I think they can build a business. What remains unproven to some extent is Jubilee's ability to drive profits. Again there have been a lot of moving parts and progress hasn't always been as fast as investors expected. The share price reflects this. Platinum, Palladium and Rhodium are all beginning to show signs of price appreciation. Copper is at a decent price and Chrome of course is highly profitable.
So turning investment into profit is the next step and there's several reasons to think they will succeed.
OB
The latest Thor Explorations RNS puts it in a net cash position now and a P/E of less than 2.
Cheapest it's ever been plus increasing geographical diversification and increased reserves. Crazy imo
Hi Nick, I've doubled my position on THX and completely agree. I've a draft article almost ready to go out which covers Thor. There's been quite a lot of negative sentiment towards Mali-based miners so perhaps people are tarring THX with the same brush? But you and I know Nigeria is a very different jurisdiction....