Sorry to be coming to an old post, but these calculations were very useful. However last week's financial results suggest ATM is making significantly heavier losses than you were projecting thus far, unless I've missed something? £8.9M (non-comprehensive) losses for FY2024, vs your projected £4.76M. Have I missed something? And if not, would the more recent results cause you to update these projections?
Sorry to prolong this discussion but the figures seem too good to be true. I think the problem is that if you take account of the lithium and tantalum revenue is calculating the AISC the entry in revenue in the spreadsheet should only be the tin revenue.
Also, I don’t think the company have said they will produce 30000 tonnes of Lithium per half year.
More importantly you seem to have doubled the amount of tin that will be achieved after the expansion. That has a major effect on the figures. If that’s true you may want to redo the p&l chart.
Hi Gordon, very useful points and yes re-done the P&L including dialling back the stripping ratio to 3.5. I expected it to make quite a difference but it didn't. That reflects the extent of difference the lithium brings in FY27 - assuming of course that to be the timescale. Thanks again. OB
Thank you, helpful article. I have a couple of points. The stripping ratio is the ratio of waste material to useable ore, I’m not sure if that is how you’re interpreting it. It is good that the ratio has reduced to 1.5 but the life of mine ratio is quoted as 3.5.
Secondly, the company refers to FY25 and CY25 which can be slightly confusing. You mentioned that the pre concentration plant should already be commissioned as Q1 25 has already gone but it isn’t actually until Q1 CY25, next year.
Have I got those points correct? Maybe it doesn’t make that much difference but I think the Company needs to be very careful about explaining dates.
Hi Faramog, the AISC rise in FY27 is the beneficiation costs of (full-scale) Lithium production and/or cost of the revenue share to the partner - with a healthy margin of safety built into the cost assumption.
Sorry to be coming to an old post, but these calculations were very useful. However last week's financial results suggest ATM is making significantly heavier losses than you were projecting thus far, unless I've missed something? £8.9M (non-comprehensive) losses for FY2024, vs your projected £4.76M. Have I missed something? And if not, would the more recent results cause you to update these projections?
Hi Sean,
I'm glad you found the article useful. I'm working through the numbers and will be publishing an article on this.
Thanks OB! That's great news, I look forward to reading it :) Thank you for the time you put into these analyses!
Hi,
Sorry to prolong this discussion but the figures seem too good to be true. I think the problem is that if you take account of the lithium and tantalum revenue is calculating the AISC the entry in revenue in the spreadsheet should only be the tin revenue.
Also, I don’t think the company have said they will produce 30000 tonnes of Lithium per half year.
Thanks, G
More importantly you seem to have doubled the amount of tin that will be achieved after the expansion. That has a major effect on the figures. If that’s true you may want to redo the p&l chart.
Hi Gordon, very useful points and yes re-done the P&L including dialling back the stripping ratio to 3.5. I expected it to make quite a difference but it didn't. That reflects the extent of difference the lithium brings in FY27 - assuming of course that to be the timescale. Thanks again. OB
Thank you, helpful article. I have a couple of points. The stripping ratio is the ratio of waste material to useable ore, I’m not sure if that is how you’re interpreting it. It is good that the ratio has reduced to 1.5 but the life of mine ratio is quoted as 3.5.
Secondly, the company refers to FY25 and CY25 which can be slightly confusing. You mentioned that the pre concentration plant should already be commissioned as Q1 25 has already gone but it isn’t actually until Q1 CY25, next year.
Have I got those points correct? Maybe it doesn’t make that much difference but I think the Company needs to be very careful about explaining dates.
Don't disagree. Just curious that you have the ASIC dropping to circa £17k in FY26 then doubling (a conservative feel).
You are basically saying it is 12-18 months from making a substantive, solid and growing profit. I tend to agree
Hi Faramog, the AISC rise in FY27 is the beneficiation costs of (full-scale) Lithium production and/or cost of the revenue share to the partner - with a healthy margin of safety built into the cost assumption.
Hope that helps
OB
ahh ....good point ... and I agree with much of the article . Solid company, not quite there yet but very well placed