Thanks for the article. Copper has come off a little but the trajectory appears to be unchanged medium and longer term. I didn't see a video or statement regarding Roan being completed - Are you including Roan and Sable here for 14,500 tonnes copper at an average $5, 200 cost.
You mentioned the market doesn't seem to have realised the scale of the change and that seems to be the case however the broker forecast consensus figures (as per stockopedia) don't appear to be taking them into consideration either, sakes forecast at approx £200m - not sure if this nets out some chrome - and
net profit £17m and on a pe of 9. How do you reconcile these figures? Especially given we're already in FY25?
I'm not sure I'd call it directors filling their boots but it is or should be seen as a positive. Best, Mike
Q2 - assuming you are referring to FY2025 - yes "Volume Tonnes" refers to total copper units across all production - Roan, Sable and other sources. (NB Zeus (ex-WH Ireland) aren't very clear but their analyst in their 24th June note said "(JLP) is set to produce 25ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q3 CY24) – Jubilee will own 95%. Project “G” will produce 20ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q4 CY24) – Jubilee will own 51%. Both these new projects, together with existing ore sources, should see Jubilee produce up to 25kt/yr of copper in cathode/concentrate". So my assumption of 14.5Kt is quite conservative by comparison.
Q3 - the broker consensus forecast (per stocko) - first of all do you know whether they keep that data up to date? Second, which brokers feed into that forecast and what is the quality of their research? I don't think there's any way of knowing is there? There appears to be a large disconnect between what Stocko is telling you and what I am reading in ResearchTree.... about the same brokers.
Q4 - not sure what you mean by Sake's forecast. Is Sake someone I should know? It's a great Japanese drink but not sure how that relates to JLP? No idea how I or anyone could reconcile a couple of random numbers without understanding the content. My own forecast meanwhile is easily reconcilable.
Q5 - Directors filling boots. Yes, I see your point and have removed the reference to boots.
Hi OB, thanks for the twitter link and your replies. Sorry if the inital points/queries were somewhat incomplete or came across in the wrong way which was not my intention.
Q2 - yes it was referring to FY2025 and agree 14.5Kt seems quite conservative though preferable.
Q3 - I have asked them about this before and re updates however as you said this info is not often as current as it should be. I was using Stocko figures as I'd recalled you mentioning Stocko when reading some articles previously and was mainly pointing out that even this seems to be out of date.
Q4 - Sakes was just a typo for sales - I'd been giving Stocko figures for sales and net profit as had just referred to Stockopedia
Q5 - ok thanks was only pointing out filling boots was a bit of a stretch ;)
Anyway appreciate your reply and apologies for the incomplete message. I have read quite a few of your posts over time and do enjoy them for the writing and the ideas.
Stocko are kind of piggy in the middle with their data and are reliant on 3rd parties so it's not their "fault" - but when writing articles I find I just can't rely on the data and have got caught out when I have (recently with the RGL-er article about Regional REIT is a good example).
I'm glad you enjoy the writing, and thanks for clarifying Sake as a typo of sales - that makes sense now!
Thanks for the article. Copper has come off a little but the trajectory appears to be unchanged medium and longer term. I didn't see a video or statement regarding Roan being completed - Are you including Roan and Sable here for 14,500 tonnes copper at an average $5, 200 cost.
You mentioned the market doesn't seem to have realised the scale of the change and that seems to be the case however the broker forecast consensus figures (as per stockopedia) don't appear to be taking them into consideration either, sakes forecast at approx £200m - not sure if this nets out some chrome - and
net profit £17m and on a pe of 9. How do you reconcile these figures? Especially given we're already in FY25?
I'm not sure I'd call it directors filling their boots but it is or should be seen as a positive. Best, Mike
Hi Mike
Q1 - the twitter post showing a "completed Roan" along with a statement by JLP saying "complete":
https://x.com/Jubilee_Metals/status/1818610048270012824
Q2 - assuming you are referring to FY2025 - yes "Volume Tonnes" refers to total copper units across all production - Roan, Sable and other sources. (NB Zeus (ex-WH Ireland) aren't very clear but their analyst in their 24th June note said "(JLP) is set to produce 25ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q3 CY24) – Jubilee will own 95%. Project “G” will produce 20ktpm grading 3-4% copper (due online in Q4 CY24) – Jubilee will own 51%. Both these new projects, together with existing ore sources, should see Jubilee produce up to 25kt/yr of copper in cathode/concentrate". So my assumption of 14.5Kt is quite conservative by comparison.
Q3 - the broker consensus forecast (per stocko) - first of all do you know whether they keep that data up to date? Second, which brokers feed into that forecast and what is the quality of their research? I don't think there's any way of knowing is there? There appears to be a large disconnect between what Stocko is telling you and what I am reading in ResearchTree.... about the same brokers.
Q4 - not sure what you mean by Sake's forecast. Is Sake someone I should know? It's a great Japanese drink but not sure how that relates to JLP? No idea how I or anyone could reconcile a couple of random numbers without understanding the content. My own forecast meanwhile is easily reconcilable.
Q5 - Directors filling boots. Yes, I see your point and have removed the reference to boots.
Best,
OB
Hi OB, thanks for the twitter link and your replies. Sorry if the inital points/queries were somewhat incomplete or came across in the wrong way which was not my intention.
Q2 - yes it was referring to FY2025 and agree 14.5Kt seems quite conservative though preferable.
Q3 - I have asked them about this before and re updates however as you said this info is not often as current as it should be. I was using Stocko figures as I'd recalled you mentioning Stocko when reading some articles previously and was mainly pointing out that even this seems to be out of date.
Q4 - Sakes was just a typo for sales - I'd been giving Stocko figures for sales and net profit as had just referred to Stockopedia
Q5 - ok thanks was only pointing out filling boots was a bit of a stretch ;)
Anyway appreciate your reply and apologies for the incomplete message. I have read quite a few of your posts over time and do enjoy them for the writing and the ideas.
Best, Mike
Hi Mike,
Stocko are kind of piggy in the middle with their data and are reliant on 3rd parties so it's not their "fault" - but when writing articles I find I just can't rely on the data and have got caught out when I have (recently with the RGL-er article about Regional REIT is a good example).
I'm glad you enjoy the writing, and thanks for clarifying Sake as a typo of sales - that makes sense now!
OB