Hi Paul The gist is you can take a short term guaranteed gain or wait because there’s the upside from the fact the NAV doesn’t include a number of upsides that I cover on the articles
A most insightful and informative read. I understand advice cannot be given; theoretically if someone had the retrospective misfortune to have been in since WPCT days - could one assume a logical strategy might be to decline this (and all future?) tenders - with the hope of gaining back (over time) the accretive potential NAV uplifts to which you refer? Or, have I misunderstood the basics! Thank you for your insight and analysis, which are most impressive.
You've understood. If you agree with my potential upsides then you get to 33p (or more). Therefore you "lose" 12p for each share you tender.
But bear in mind that the 33p isn't certain, and isn't today, in fact some of the upside will be over 5 years or so.
I think the other perspective to ask is to say are paper losses only losses when you crystallise them? A potential mistake to make is to seek to recover at least one's buy price. Recovering losses is psychologically more important than making gains - but is that going to make you the most profit?
If you can "free your mind" to look at it as a new investment and past losses are in the past not in the present then the right course of action can be easier to decide.
From that perspective you can buy for 14.95p something you can sell at least 20% of it for 21p .... which is over 40% "guaranteed" profit over that proportion. On the assumption that some/many won't participate you might even be able to tender 100% at 21p.
Taking it a step further. I can buy something for 14.95p that I can sell for 21p that I can then rebuy for 14.95p perhaps. This means I've only paid 8.9p net for the 2nd purchase. For something that might be worth 33p.
So not advice but you asked about a logical strategy - well that's my logical strategy.
so the best is to tender or to keep?
Wondering the same. Tender is at 21p which is the 31 May NAV. Part of me thinks it makes sense to get out at NAV while the chance is there.
Hi Paul The gist is you can take a short term guaranteed gain or wait because there’s the upside from the fact the NAV doesn’t include a number of upsides that I cover on the articles
OB
A most insightful and informative read. I understand advice cannot be given; theoretically if someone had the retrospective misfortune to have been in since WPCT days - could one assume a logical strategy might be to decline this (and all future?) tenders - with the hope of gaining back (over time) the accretive potential NAV uplifts to which you refer? Or, have I misunderstood the basics! Thank you for your insight and analysis, which are most impressive.
AC,
You've understood. If you agree with my potential upsides then you get to 33p (or more). Therefore you "lose" 12p for each share you tender.
But bear in mind that the 33p isn't certain, and isn't today, in fact some of the upside will be over 5 years or so.
I think the other perspective to ask is to say are paper losses only losses when you crystallise them? A potential mistake to make is to seek to recover at least one's buy price. Recovering losses is psychologically more important than making gains - but is that going to make you the most profit?
If you can "free your mind" to look at it as a new investment and past losses are in the past not in the present then the right course of action can be easier to decide.
From that perspective you can buy for 14.95p something you can sell at least 20% of it for 21p .... which is over 40% "guaranteed" profit over that proportion. On the assumption that some/many won't participate you might even be able to tender 100% at 21p.
Taking it a step further. I can buy something for 14.95p that I can sell for 21p that I can then rebuy for 14.95p perhaps. This means I've only paid 8.9p net for the 2nd purchase. For something that might be worth 33p.
So not advice but you asked about a logical strategy - well that's my logical strategy.
OB
Thanks OB for your very helpful reply - a lot of food for thought here for sure, much appreciated! AC