There is still a long way to go on junior precious metal miners OB (maybe after a breather next few weeks?), although I am not calling out any specific ones. Also SQZ was an excellent call - I like the idea of cencentrating where the asymmetric risk vs upside is very clear. I have suffered a lot on biotech - something whose time should have come but hasn't. It maybe 2026 is biotech year. And it may not be, so pls be sure. You have some excellent fund ideas, are these allowed?- I much prefer sector exposure than individual small caps which I view as very risky (just speaking from hard experience!)
I find biotech too hard to get right and now avoid the area. Burnt in the Covid bubble and while might be a good time now i will endeavour to just stay away.
Gold seems to be having a consolidating moment so might be a good time to lean in further before the next leg up. US gov (even UK gov with its brit coin) is pointing people at bitcoin...sucking in capital for no doubt the setting up of CBDCs and a way of governments to fund their out of control deficits.
Best OB picks for me this year - Thor, GPM, SQZ, DEC (all of these have done 30%+
By best own picks - Fresnillo, Paypoint, Ramsdens These have done 50%+
As my comment above. I wish had deep dived further into the businesses and made a bolder call on weighting in portfolio.
Biotech tends to do be like miners; lots of potential, but lots of losers too. I think my favourite pick right now is a fund rather than single stocks - so RTW (which I last covered in Jan in RTW Wind)
The fun-run articles are great. And going back to the 2024 picks would be interesting to read also. "Time arbitrage" is the one advantage small private investors have, and it should be exploited far more consciously, I think.
I'd like to see CORD sell any of their assets. I bet they couldn't get anywhere near to NAV for them. So I don't feel they are an acceptable yardstick to measure DGI9 against.
OB while i much appreciate all the great investment ideas thrown out by your substack i wonder if in your personal investment journey you would concentrate your portfolio further to say circa 10 bets rather than 25? Less is more and all that.
It would be interesting to run a comparison for the remainder of the year on your 10 most conviction investments and see the performance at year end against the 25. All successful value investors seem to go big on a few. To quote Nick Sleep (sorry...again) in their early days they were looking for investments at least 50% below intrinsic book value and happy to sit on it for 5 years. Seems like they didn't need to wait that long on most picks.
On the flip side if we do every get a bear market you'll be full time on the substack due to so many opportunities.
Enjoyed reading the article, thank you for all the work that goes into it OB. It is obvious that the people on this forum have a great deal of: skill, foresight and forensic accounting capabilities etc. Imagine, what if all this talent could be pooled into one set of ideas, would it be possible to produce a truly outstanding portfolio of ideas that could out perform any index?
There is still a long way to go on junior precious metal miners OB (maybe after a breather next few weeks?), although I am not calling out any specific ones. Also SQZ was an excellent call - I like the idea of cencentrating where the asymmetric risk vs upside is very clear. I have suffered a lot on biotech - something whose time should have come but hasn't. It maybe 2026 is biotech year. And it may not be, so pls be sure. You have some excellent fund ideas, are these allowed?- I much prefer sector exposure than individual small caps which I view as very risky (just speaking from hard experience!)
I find biotech too hard to get right and now avoid the area. Burnt in the Covid bubble and while might be a good time now i will endeavour to just stay away.
Gold seems to be having a consolidating moment so might be a good time to lean in further before the next leg up. US gov (even UK gov with its brit coin) is pointing people at bitcoin...sucking in capital for no doubt the setting up of CBDCs and a way of governments to fund their out of control deficits.
Best OB picks for me this year - Thor, GPM, SQZ, DEC (all of these have done 30%+
By best own picks - Fresnillo, Paypoint, Ramsdens These have done 50%+
As my comment above. I wish had deep dived further into the businesses and made a bolder call on weighting in portfolio.
Hi John,
Biotech tends to do be like miners; lots of potential, but lots of losers too. I think my favourite pick right now is a fund rather than single stocks - so RTW (which I last covered in Jan in RTW Wind)
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/rtw-rtw-wind-when-the-crowd-say-go
They've announced some encouraging news today:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/RTW/update-on-corxel-pharmaceuticals/17100029
OB
PS Fresnillo, Paypoint and Ramsdens are all great outcomes - well done!
Appreciate the response. As always great analysis! :)
Great article thanks for sharing, my pick would be Mr Jon he is a shrewd operator
The fun-run articles are great. And going back to the 2024 picks would be interesting to read also. "Time arbitrage" is the one advantage small private investors have, and it should be exploited far more consciously, I think.
I'd like to see CORD sell any of their assets. I bet they couldn't get anywhere near to NAV for them. So I don't feel they are an acceptable yardstick to measure DGI9 against.
Here's a small under the radar company to look out if you have time- AUTG, Autins Group. Results out today and they seemed reasonably positive: https://ii.co.uk/news/autins-notes-tariff-disruption-but-eyes-return-to-profit-next-year-al1750764961046189500
OB while i much appreciate all the great investment ideas thrown out by your substack i wonder if in your personal investment journey you would concentrate your portfolio further to say circa 10 bets rather than 25? Less is more and all that.
It would be interesting to run a comparison for the remainder of the year on your 10 most conviction investments and see the performance at year end against the 25. All successful value investors seem to go big on a few. To quote Nick Sleep (sorry...again) in their early days they were looking for investments at least 50% below intrinsic book value and happy to sit on it for 5 years. Seems like they didn't need to wait that long on most picks.
On the flip side if we do every get a bear market you'll be full time on the substack due to so many opportunities.
As always appreciate the content!
Enjoyed reading the article, thank you for all the work that goes into it OB. It is obvious that the people on this forum have a great deal of: skill, foresight and forensic accounting capabilities etc. Imagine, what if all this talent could be pooled into one set of ideas, would it be possible to produce a truly outstanding portfolio of ideas that could out perform any index?