Great write up. THX has been undervalued for some time. The State issues have been a nuisance that will hopefully be resolved shortly.
I can't personally see Buy Backs. I think there's too much Capital required for Douta. Just my opinion of course. Lots of near term catalysts news though - Segilola Drilling, Douta PFS and get this State nonsense out the way and we could be off to the races!
The dispute is taken into account, as you know, but not the potential consequence if Osun state's claim is upheld. I find it hard to believe that Thor Exploration would have either forgotten or lied about the existence of a 5% of shares agreement. Doing so would put it (and its advisors) in breach of its obligations to its shareholders and to the FCA. Canaccord Genuity and Hannam & Partners have exemplary reputations.
Therefore the only explanation is that this is a fake claim and no much claim exists in truth.
Excellent summary. The numbers seem too outrageous to be believable but OB's analysis is in my view solid.
A few considerations from my POV l:
1. The Osun state nonsense clearly reversed the share price as it broke 20p. It was on a clear upward trajectory. Unfortunate. And all for £2m (though it's the threat of extortion that imo makes shareholders nervous). Thx starts paying taxes in 2027. Maybe too good a deal?
2. Management in my view are sandbagging / downplaying until this is sorted ('opportunity makes thieves'). I believe they're withholding further updates on drilling until this is dealt with.
3. The ivory coast deal is a clear statement of intent. I agree with OB it's unlikely THX will return cash. More likely is to buy another producing gold mine in say Senegal or another jurisdiction. There have been some amazing deals of late. Heliostar picked up a mine producing 30k oz for only £5m. PAF bought into an Australian miner for a really good price. Imo this kind of a deal would be supportive of the sp.
4. Resolute's Mali issues and the Burkina Faso drum banging earlier in the year have also been weighing on PM miners in the region.
All told the business is in a good place with potential to add mine life and ozs, it's the political issues weighing down right now.
Great write up. THX has been undervalued for some time. The State issues have been a nuisance that will hopefully be resolved shortly.
I can't personally see Buy Backs. I think there's too much Capital required for Douta. Just my opinion of course. Lots of near term catalysts news though - Segilola Drilling, Douta PFS and get this State nonsense out the way and we could be off to the races!
May I check their eps sensitivity to $100 increase in gold price? Thanks.
My model has it that EPS improves by 1p per share, for every $100 rise in gold.
Thanks for the feedback.
Thanks OB. Which of these capital returns do you think is most likely? Dividends or buy backs.
Great summary. I found this article. Was this taken into account though? State claims ownership of some stock. https://tribuneonlineng.com/osun-to-get-shares-in-segilola-project-adeleke/amp/
The dispute is taken into account, as you know, but not the potential consequence if Osun state's claim is upheld. I find it hard to believe that Thor Exploration would have either forgotten or lied about the existence of a 5% of shares agreement. Doing so would put it (and its advisors) in breach of its obligations to its shareholders and to the FCA. Canaccord Genuity and Hannam & Partners have exemplary reputations.
Therefore the only explanation is that this is a fake claim and no much claim exists in truth.
OB
Also worth a watch
https://youtu.be/WJ_FsuJ-5G0?si=50j8TGVilpMCGcf1
Oak have a look at Adriatic Metals now. Could be a pearl in there
https://research.hannam.partners/#/document/e0dbd4ba-f2e2-418f-9eeb-2332e322f5ba
Hannam and Partners write up.
I'm not able to access the write up. Would you mind posting the contents please? (Maybe with www.archive.is or screenshots)
I've tried but Substack doesn't let me / make that easy
Excellent summary. The numbers seem too outrageous to be believable but OB's analysis is in my view solid.
A few considerations from my POV l:
1. The Osun state nonsense clearly reversed the share price as it broke 20p. It was on a clear upward trajectory. Unfortunate. And all for £2m (though it's the threat of extortion that imo makes shareholders nervous). Thx starts paying taxes in 2027. Maybe too good a deal?
2. Management in my view are sandbagging / downplaying until this is sorted ('opportunity makes thieves'). I believe they're withholding further updates on drilling until this is dealt with.
3. The ivory coast deal is a clear statement of intent. I agree with OB it's unlikely THX will return cash. More likely is to buy another producing gold mine in say Senegal or another jurisdiction. There have been some amazing deals of late. Heliostar picked up a mine producing 30k oz for only £5m. PAF bought into an Australian miner for a really good price. Imo this kind of a deal would be supportive of the sp.
4. Resolute's Mali issues and the Burkina Faso drum banging earlier in the year have also been weighing on PM miners in the region.
All told the business is in a good place with potential to add mine life and ozs, it's the political issues weighing down right now.