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Stock Detective's avatar

Today on a 40% discount 😝

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Chris Sword's avatar

Interesting, thx, how long can they survive, if the sales process takes longer than expected?

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The Oak Bloke's avatar

Based on the fact they have options around borrowing, options around selling its 2 listed holdings, and options around follow on fund raises. 12 months seems fairly nailed on and 24-36 months reasonably likely. 37+ possible.

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Chris Sword's avatar

Thank you, I might take a closer look at KDNC in 2025 if I find time

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Chris Sword's avatar

With Simandu ramping up production in the coming years, it is hard for me to believe that somebody wants build a new iron ore mine. An idea how the cost curve will look in 3 years? Some estimates on this public?

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The Oak Bloke's avatar

Chris,

Presuming you mean Simandou not Simandu I considered this back in the article "Have you got the minerals?" and the conclusion was that Amapa compared highly favourably and would be a prize asset both from a cost quartile, quality and political, point of view.

https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/do-you-have-the-minerals

....And that was before the news this week that Amapa's NPV has increased by 73%!

As a category green steel is growing with a 20.9% CAGR according to TheEngineer so considering this just as "a new iron ore mine" miscategorises it.

https://www.theengineer.co.uk/content/opinion/how-green-steel-technologies-are-driving-decarbonisation/

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