Hey Oak, I always enjoy your posts and hope you get lots of support for the fighting cancer fundraising
I’m glad many just seem to be watching ANIC. I’m down 50% on it.
The potential for this industry seems incredible. Even if you think cultivated meat might never reach cost parity, like some do, there are so many options left in their portfolio.
The fundraisings you mentioned should not be underestimated imho. What I read into it is, that this management team is really able to identify start ups with great potential, including management and everything. Yes, they did have write downs too.
What I don’t get, if Jim Mellon is a billionaire (!) why not mob up a lot more shares at 70% discount to NAV?
The ultimate trigger imo for ANIC will be profitability of the portfolio companies. Anthony C. has repeatedly said in interviews, that they know it will take long time for the industry as a whole and therefore tried to focus on pics that might be earlier than others. Then usually mentions Liberation Labs.
Like with all projects they lack their timelines a little bit. Latest interview he mentioned completion in mid 2025.
I wish they would announce “fully funded“ for this one soon and also provide more details on the estimated revenue/income.
The only comment I can make relating to Jim Mellon is the same argument could be made for Condor Gold. He holds 26.12% which is about £11m of shares and Condor is selling a project where the return is fabulous. Why would he not just pay to build it himself? Especially with gold prices being what they are.
The comment I would make on Cost parity is simply to consider similar endeavours. Genetic testing is possibly the best read across. But common sense should guide us via three simple truths:
1. The world's capacity to add more and more and more animals for slaughter is at or more likely beyond its maximum. Scarcity therefore drives up cost.
2. The second truth is that a new approach which fundamentally involves less waste, faster production times, vastly greater consistency, and is in keeping with Net Zero and at enormously reduced risk (e.g. Covid) is highly likely to win out. It's more of question of when.
3. The third truth is look at beer. What I mean is the move from Monastery brewing to Steam Engines, industrialisation and scaling of beer making shows what's possible. Brewing is after all a form of precision fermentation - see:
After all past may he put circa 1 million in stock at 10p. Even if his wealth is stuck in land, he will always have one million spare somewhere and the fact that he, contrary to his public stated conviction of the share price being "unacceptable" below NAV, doesn't take any action is indeed confusion as f...ck.
Also, does anyone can make sense of the the new CEO assignment?
Any hidden agenda Jimbo M. is following here?
For me it doesn't really add up, considering how well all the companies are developing. Anthony certainly has had a significant contribution to how the current portfolio looks like.
At a sudden, Jim feels strong about the share price and Anthonys performance . I could even imagine, him trying to pump up the share price just to drop his shares. Also, wishful language such as "we will ensure" doesn't strengthen my trust in the management. "Ensure" based on what?
What can the new CEO Philip B. do that Anthony couldn't, considering that Jim basically implicitly states that in spite of he by himself continuously being on Anthony's side, they now need a Dr. Philip B. to get something done that couldn't be done by Jim and Anthony together.
I miss a proper argument based on critical analytical reasoning that would support the thesis of a increased share price in the near future caused by this change.
Another great article. I have been watching this for ages. The one thing that is holding me back is the slightly strange fee arrangements there appear to be between ANIC and Jim Mellon. It could be worth checking these to ensure they are shareholder friendly.
Brew baby brew! - I think a Trump Presidency could be extremely positive for ANIC and particularly for Liberation Labs. Exactly the "honest to goodness" industrial player Trump wants to incentivise and encourage.
We are likely to continue to see State legislatures decide on Lab grown meat where half do and half don't..... the half that do is plenty of market to go after.
Take Marlborough, one of the institutional investors in ANIC.
They've sold £1m of shares in the past year for example. Why?
Marlborough Special Situations Fund. 31/12/23 Fund Size was £725m. Today £615m.
So they've had to flog £110m of something. Yet they've only sold 8.7m and still hold 48.5m shares in ANIC.
Any idea? Is it because they are stupid for believing in this company too? Or is it because they are clever, and believe in this company, but have been forced to liquidate holdings?
A lot of fund selling was ahead of today's budget in the UK. ANIC's status for Inheritance Tax planning has been confirmed today too.
It’s almost never been a better time to open positions in investment trusts and small cap funds, and this is one I’m watching carefully, but to realise the value need some indicators why the market would look to narrow the gap between NAV and market price. I’m patient so can see it happening along with growth in a 5-10 year timeframe.
Hey Oak, I always enjoy your posts and hope you get lots of support for the fighting cancer fundraising
I’m glad many just seem to be watching ANIC. I’m down 50% on it.
The potential for this industry seems incredible. Even if you think cultivated meat might never reach cost parity, like some do, there are so many options left in their portfolio.
The fundraisings you mentioned should not be underestimated imho. What I read into it is, that this management team is really able to identify start ups with great potential, including management and everything. Yes, they did have write downs too.
What I don’t get, if Jim Mellon is a billionaire (!) why not mob up a lot more shares at 70% discount to NAV?
The ultimate trigger imo for ANIC will be profitability of the portfolio companies. Anthony C. has repeatedly said in interviews, that they know it will take long time for the industry as a whole and therefore tried to focus on pics that might be earlier than others. Then usually mentions Liberation Labs.
Like with all projects they lack their timelines a little bit. Latest interview he mentioned completion in mid 2025.
I wish they would announce “fully funded“ for this one soon and also provide more details on the estimated revenue/income.
Cheers Oak and everyone else
Hi Stock,
Thank you for the feedback.
The only comment I can make relating to Jim Mellon is the same argument could be made for Condor Gold. He holds 26.12% which is about £11m of shares and Condor is selling a project where the return is fabulous. Why would he not just pay to build it himself? Especially with gold prices being what they are.
The answer could be that yes he's a billionaire but much of his wealth is tied up in land. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Mellon
The comment I would make on Cost parity is simply to consider similar endeavours. Genetic testing is possibly the best read across. But common sense should guide us via three simple truths:
1. The world's capacity to add more and more and more animals for slaughter is at or more likely beyond its maximum. Scarcity therefore drives up cost.
2. The second truth is that a new approach which fundamentally involves less waste, faster production times, vastly greater consistency, and is in keeping with Net Zero and at enormously reduced risk (e.g. Covid) is highly likely to win out. It's more of question of when.
3. The third truth is look at beer. What I mean is the move from Monastery brewing to Steam Engines, industrialisation and scaling of beer making shows what's possible. Brewing is after all a form of precision fermentation - see:
https://www.precisionfermentation.com/blog/brewing-past-present-and-future/
After all past may he put circa 1 million in stock at 10p. Even if his wealth is stuck in land, he will always have one million spare somewhere and the fact that he, contrary to his public stated conviction of the share price being "unacceptable" below NAV, doesn't take any action is indeed confusion as f...ck.
Also, does anyone can make sense of the the new CEO assignment?
Any hidden agenda Jimbo M. is following here?
For me it doesn't really add up, considering how well all the companies are developing. Anthony certainly has had a significant contribution to how the current portfolio looks like.
At a sudden, Jim feels strong about the share price and Anthonys performance . I could even imagine, him trying to pump up the share price just to drop his shares. Also, wishful language such as "we will ensure" doesn't strengthen my trust in the management. "Ensure" based on what?
What can the new CEO Philip B. do that Anthony couldn't, considering that Jim basically implicitly states that in spite of he by himself continuously being on Anthony's side, they now need a Dr. Philip B. to get something done that couldn't be done by Jim and Anthony together.
I miss a proper argument based on critical analytical reasoning that would support the thesis of a increased share price in the near future caused by this change.
So far I am afraid the reason is something else.
Jim Mellon has taken action today I see buying 2m shares. Perhaps he saw your comment Dominik and was spurred on to take action.
We won't know why Mellon said ciao to Chow but ultimately Mellon's a smart man and whatever his reasons it's done and let's see what Philip achieves.
Thank you. Saw the RNS.
Whats your take on the Black Rock sell off?
Whats your take on the amount/100k that JM invested?
If I remember correctly, Jim invested quite some money directly into Liberation Labs in the last financing round.
do you remember the exact amount of money he invested?
Another great article. I have been watching this for ages. The one thing that is holding me back is the slightly strange fee arrangements there appear to be between ANIC and Jim Mellon. It could be worth checking these to ensure they are shareholder friendly.
Hi Frederick, you should really read my article where I examined this.
The inappropriately named "a-nicking from":
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/a-nicking-from-private-investors
Read it. Much appreciated, & points taken!
Keep up the great work too!
What thoughts do you guys have on the new president elect Donald Trump?
What implications on the sectors ANIC operates in do you expect?
Brew baby brew! - I think a Trump Presidency could be extremely positive for ANIC and particularly for Liberation Labs. Exactly the "honest to goodness" industrial player Trump wants to incentivise and encourage.
We are likely to continue to see State legislatures decide on Lab grown meat where half do and half don't..... the half that do is plenty of market to go after.
OB
What are your takes on the current share price. Today 30th of October, it's 4.0p. Again down 50% from when this article was released.
Any idea? Are we all stupid for believing in this company?
Dominik
Take Marlborough, one of the institutional investors in ANIC.
They've sold £1m of shares in the past year for example. Why?
Marlborough Special Situations Fund. 31/12/23 Fund Size was £725m. Today £615m.
So they've had to flog £110m of something. Yet they've only sold 8.7m and still hold 48.5m shares in ANIC.
Any idea? Is it because they are stupid for believing in this company too? Or is it because they are clever, and believe in this company, but have been forced to liquidate holdings?
A lot of fund selling was ahead of today's budget in the UK. ANIC's status for Inheritance Tax planning has been confirmed today too.
OB
Where did you get the data fro Marlborough Special Situations Fund?
Refinitiv
It’s almost never been a better time to open positions in investment trusts and small cap funds, and this is one I’m watching carefully, but to realise the value need some indicators why the market would look to narrow the gap between NAV and market price. I’m patient so can see it happening along with growth in a 5-10 year timeframe.